Elon Musk has threatened to launch a new party to undermine US President Donald Trump, following a falling out over a spending bill. But is the billionaire businessman overestimating his ability to cause political harm?

The first salvo in the second round of theElon Musk-Donald Trumpbreakup saga was fired before the US presidents massive spending bill headed to theSenatethis week. The worlds richest man opposes the tax-cut and spending bill advanced by the worlds most powerful man and the two are again at each other's throats.

Musk is so upset about the act, dubbed The One Big Beautiful Bill, that he has threatened to form a new political party to undermine the Republicans.

Ahead of Tuesdays Senate vote, Musk vowed to create his rival party, titled the "America Party", if the Republicans approved the bill.

If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day. Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uni-party so that the people actually have a VOICE,Musk said on Xon Monday evening.

Vox populi, vox Dei?

Musks alternate party threat is not new. The billionaire businessman floated the idea in early June during the first round of the Musk-Trump bromance-to-breakup proceedings, which erupted on social media.

Shortly after formally stepping down from his role in the Trump administration as head of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk launched a poll on X to see if his social media followers were in favour of creating a new party.

Musks hundreds of millions of X followers were informed that the new party would be in the middle of the political spectrum, between the Democrats and the Republicans.

On Tuesday, Muskbrought up his poll again on X, posting the 80% favouring a new party result with the phrase, Vox Populi, Vox Dei.

Since the Latin phrase translates as "the voice of the people [is] the voice of God", the post suggested that Musk was now obliged to follow the majority opinion.

Except the vox populi on X is not necessarily representative of the American people.

I don't think it's particularly serious, said Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary University of London. Experts note that even Musk's considerable fortune would not be enough to create a new movement. It is possible to create a party, and money can help, but it's a fairly closed system, confirmed Jrome Viala-Gaudefroy, a US politics expert and author of the book Les mots de Trump (The Words of Trump).

In practical terms, its very, very difficult to create a new party in the US system. There are all kinds of barriers, state by state, which require huge numbers of signatures to get to be put on the ballot, said Johnson. This isn't just a case of money. You actually need thousands and thousands of people in every state to give your party ballot access. So this kind of the undertaking would be enormous, and it would require a huge investment in time.

Viala-Gaudefroy is sceptical about Musk's ability to generate enough popular enthusiasm to garner the requisite number of signatures. Musk is even lower in the polls than Donald Trump, he has angered the Democratic electorate and his positions are not very popular among independent voters either, he noted.

A wealthy tech bro sours on woke ideology

The political platform of a potential America Party would indeed struggle to appeal to a broad electorate.

Musks brand of politics, which Johnson describes as basically Silicon Valley, but a little bit more socially conservative, is distasteful for many voters across the Republican-Democrat divide. His kind of anti-woke positions is offensive to Democrats, noted Johnson.

But on the other hand, Musk also supports the kind of high-skilled immigrant labour that has powered the Silicon Valley startup industry. He basically has the positions of a wealthy tech bro who has soured a bit on what he views as woke ideology, but otherwise carries a lot of the policy positions of wealthy tech men in California, explained Johnson.

In other words, Musks economic positions such as his support for greener energy sources, compatible with hisTeslaelectric cars, or his defence of high-skilledimmigrationare unlikely to appeal to Trumps electoral base.

On the other side of the political spectrum, his controversial statements and gestures such as his raised arm, which strongly resembles a Nazi salute disqualify him in the eyes of more progressive voters.

A measure of the billionaire businessmans unpopularity was evident in Wednesdays market quarterly deliveries, which saw Tesla posting a 13.5% drop in sales over the past three months, reflecting a lingering anti-Musk sentiment.

A 'beautiful' bill splits conservative ranks

While the Tesla-SpaceX boss may be delusional about his actual popularity in the real world, experts say the new party threat could be Musks way of sending the message that he is prepared to go to great lengths to hurt Trumpism.

Viala-Gaudefroy believes the presidents inner circle should be more concerned about Musks promises to defeat Trumpist candidates using his personal fortune if the tax-cut and spending bill is passed.

By becoming the Republican Party's biggest donor, Musk proved very useful to Trump during the presidential campaign. The US president probably does not want to see the world's richest man turn his billions of dollars against Trumpist candidates in the 2026 midterm elections, or even in the Republican primaries.

This could have a significant impact, as the presidential majority in Congress is very slim. It could tip the balance if Elon Musk manages to sway the scales against pro-Trump candidates in just a few key constituencies, explained Viala-Gaudefroy.

The political precariousness was on display on Tuesday, when Senate Republicans squeaked through their sweeping tax and spending bill by a51-to-50 vote that required Vice PresidentJD Vanceto cast the tie-breaker.

Read moreUS Senate narrowly passes Trumps massive spending bill, Vance casts tie-breaking vote

The close Senate vote reflected the considerable angst within the Republican Party over the bill, which even lost its grandiose One Big Beautiful Bill name after Senate Majority LeaderChuck Schumerinvoked Senate budget rules to delete the title of the bill on the floor Tuesday.

Trump himself appears to be cognisant of the threat Musk poses to his fiscal conservative base. Shortly before the bill was put to a Senate vote on Tuesday, the US president launched a high-octane castigation of his former billionaire friend.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said he would take a look at measures to consider deporting the South African-born Musk, who has held US citizenship since 2002.

Trump also signaled that he could take aim at the huge contracts and subsidies that Musk's Space X rocket and Starlink satellite internet businesses receive from the US government.

"We might have to put DOGE on Elon. You know what DOGE is? DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon," Trump said.

Read moreTrump ramps up Musk feud with deportation threat

Money is important, but not everything

Democrats, for the moment, might be rubbing their hands with glee over the latest round of the Musk-Trump fallout. Some party figures have floated the possibility of Democrats making overtures to Musk, given his political largesse. But others warn that the financial support of someone as controversial as Musk could just as easily hurt a Democratic candidate.

As a result, experts interviewed by FRANCE 24 believe that the most effective tactic for the billionaire businessman would be to promise to support all Republican candidates who, in a right-wing primary, run against Trump's men.

While money is important in US politics, it's not everything, notes Johnson. WhenBarack Obamafirst ran for the Senate, he ran against one of the wealthiest men in Illinois, explained Johnson, referring to Obamas 2004 Democratic primary win over multimillionaire Chicago trader Blair Hull, who spent spent millions and millions of dollars, outspending Obama massively. He got nowhere in the Democratic primary because basically, he wasn't offering anything that Democratic voters found particularly interesting.

But while Musks money could potentially be toxic for Democratic candidates, the disruption he has caused among Republican ranks is an asset for Democrats. We are witnessing a kind of civil war brewing within the Republican Party, said Viala-Gaudefroy. The Democrats could hardly dream of a better scenario than one in which Trump does everything in his power to defeat Republican candidates who have opposed his spending bill while Musk does the opposite.

This article has been translated from theoriginal in French.

Originally published on France24