The fortunes of the Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre in Canada's April 2025 election seemed to have shifted dramatically after United States President Donald Trump called for Canada to become the 51st state.

Political pundits regarded Mark Carney and the Liberal Party's victory - along with the failure of Poilievre to retain his own seat - as a "Trump slump" and a repudiation of both Trump's and Poilievre's style of politics.

But is that an accurate assessment? The Conservative Party received its largest vote share since Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. Exit polling data suggested stronger support for the Conservative Party among people aged 18-34 than among people aged 55 and older.

Although Trump has said Poilievre is "not a MAGA guy," some political analysts have likened the rhetoric of Poilievre and other Canadian Conservatives to American Republicans who lean towards far-right Christian nationalist politics..

As an inter-religious humanities scholar of the U.S. far right, I have observed alarming parallels between the rise of the far right in mainstream politics in the U.S. and the scene in Canada.

Read more: A 'Trump slump' has lifted the left in Canada and now Australia - what are the lessons for NZ?

In the U.S., both scholars and news media have been highlighting the connections between far-right Christian ideology and politics.

Trump's first presidential term ended with the Jan. 6, 2021 violent attack on the U.S. Capitol. Scholars like Matthew Taylor, author of The Violent Take it by Force, have pointed to Christian nationalism and other far-right ideologies as factors that motivated the rioters.

In February 2025, Trump appointed televangelist Paula White-Cain to head the newly created White House Faith Office. White-Cain's appointment followed an executive order establishing a task force to eradicate anti-Christian bias.

Thea appointment adds to the the narrative that U.S. Christians are facing persecution, a refrain since at least the 1970s and heightened during Barack Obama's presidency. Scholars have linked the assertion that "Christianity is under attack" to the rise of Christian nationalism in mainstream politics.

Read more: Trump may have emboldened hate in Canada, but it was already here

American sociologists Andrew Whitehead and Samuel Perry define Christian nationalism as "a cultural framework that blurs distinctions between Christian identity and American identity, viewing the two as closely related and seeking to enhance and preserve their union."

It's tempting to read "Christian idenity" and "American identity" and assume it does not affect Canada.

But Christian nationalist ideologies were present during the so-called Freedom Convoy in Ottawa in 2022. According to Canadian scholars, national identity is blurred in online spaces, allowing U.S. nationalist ideals to take hold in Canada.]

Christian nationalism is not synonymous with Christianity or any specific branch of Christianity, like evangelical Christianity.

According to U.S. sociologist Daniel Miller, Christian nationalism is not a set list of ideological or religious beliefs. Instead, Miller says, Christian nationalism emerges when people identify with "a very narrow, idealized prototype of the 'real or 'authentic' American."

He says two mechanisms connect people to Christian nationalism. The first is perceived loss of power by the people who historically held power. This is known as a "power devaluation crisis." The second is a narrative of decline - known as a a "declensionist narrative" - which asserts that American society has declined since the 1960s and needs repair and reclamation.

Poilievre is not open about his religion and does not call for Canada to be a Christian nation. But whether Poilievre intends to stir up Christian nationalists, some of his rhetoric has indicated support for the classic definitions of Christian nationalism.

According to Miller, support for Christian nationalism is not always direct. It can be activated by stoking a crisis of lost power, like the decline of the "traditional" family or by asserting a narrative of decline, like "Canada is broken."

For example, Poilievre's 2025 campaign mobilized both of the narrative mechanisms that attract Christian nationalist mentioned by sociologists: a power devaluation crisis and the narrative of decline.

In the lead-up to his 2025 campaign, Poilievre repeatedly called Canada "broken.". He cited increased crime, addiction, high grocery prices and more as evidence of Canada's brokenness, accusing the Liberal government of erasing Canada's past.

When Poilievre calls Canada "broken," it affirms the world view of Christian nationalists.

Another strategy Poilievre reportedly adopted from Trump was his work to court conservative Christians.

In an 2024 interview with The Tyee, religious right scholar Carmen Celestini of Waterloo University said Poilievre had "ramped up" his presence at churches. Additionally, The Globe and Mail reported there were fewer photos ops of Poilievre visiting mosques in 2024.

Of course, visits to churches are not enough to signal alignment with Christian nationalists. And Poilievre has not espoused any Christian evangelical ideals in any public speech.

But it's still important for Canadians to remain alert about Christian nationalists and their ambitions to become part of mainstream politics.

A study from the U.S. has linked the rise in Christian nationalist ideologies to attacks on religious minorities. The 2024 qualitative data from the study indicates that when politicians rhetorically supported Christian nationalist values, there was a increased violence against minority groups.

According to Statistics Canada, the violent crime rate in Canada rose 13 per cent from 2021-2022.. Police-reported hate crimes increased 32 per cent from 2022 to 2023. Crimes targeting religion rose 67 per cent in 2023, primarily targeting Jewish and Muslim communities.

While I know of no studies showing the rise of the far right is directly leading to violence in Canada, Canadians should be aware of the pattern in the U.S. Research shows that growing Christian nationalists and far-right world views south of the border are, in fact, connected to a rise in violence.