Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, Im looking into the back-and-forth between Israeli and Iranian officials over whether Iran is advancing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of threatening the United States.

What You Need To Know

Could Iran Target American Cities?:Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has raised alarms about Irans missile ambitions, claiming Tehran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US East Coast with minimal enhancements. While Netanyahus warnings emphasize an emerging threat to American cities, Irans Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi rejects these assertions as unfounded, stating Irans longest-range missiles are limited to about 2,000 kilometers and serve purely defensive aims.

Calls Grow To Shut Womens Prison:At least two inmates have died in Qarchak Prison, which is billed by Iranian media as one of the worlds largest womens prisons. The deaths have reignited calls for the authorities to close the prison, which has long been a grim symbol of repression in Iran. RFE/RLs Radio Fardaspokewith activists who served time in Qarchak, with one describing the facility as uninhabitable.

Iranians Feel The Pinch As UN Sanctions Return: Videosshowingyoung women riding motorcycles through the streets of Tehran have taken social media by storm this week amid a debate over Irans longstanding ban on issuing motorcycle licenses to women. Under current law, only men can obtain a license, leaving women who ride motorcycles without insurance coverage or legal protections. Lawmakers are now reviewing anew billthat could finally address the issue.

The Big Issue

President Masud Pezeshkian visits a defense and space achievements exhibition in Tehran, February 2

How Long Is Too Long?

Benjamin Netanyahu reignited debate over Irans missile capabilities this week, claiming that Tehrans latest missile developments could threaten major cities well beyond the Middle East.

Netanyahu stated Iran is working on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with a range of up to 8,000 kilometers -- enough to strike the US East Coast if the range is extended further.

But Irans Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi swiftly dismissed the warnings, labelling them as fabricated and imaginary. He reiterated Irans stance that its longest-range missiles reach approximately 2,000 kilometers, targeting only regional adversaries such as Israel, and maintain that their program is strictly defensive in nature.

But conservative lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani contradicted Araqchi in an interview with a local news outlet.

Ardestani, who is a member of the parliaments influential National Security And Foreign Policy Committee, claimed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has lifted all restrictions on the range of Iranian missiles.

Why It Matters:Though Iran formally denies pursuing nuclear armament for its ballistic missiles, a senior Iranian commander hinted this month that missile ranges may be extended further if future security concerns warrant it.

This follows strategic shifts after the Israel-Iran war in June, which saw launch sites pushed further east inside Iran, necessitating greater reach for future deterrence.

In a segment of a 2021 documentary released by the supreme leaders office, Khamenei tells a small gathering that military leaders wanted a range of four to five thousand kilometers, but I wouldnt allow it; I told them not to build anything over 2,000 kilometers for now.

When someone in the audience asked for the justification, Khamenei replied, Theres a reason, and added that the commanders continue to complain to him because he wont lift the restriction.

What's Being Said:Netanyahu warned on during an interview with American conservative political commentator Ben Shapiro that Iran is developing ICBMs capable of putting New York City, Boston, Washington, or Miami under their atomic guns.

Iran can blackmail any American city, Netanyahu explained. People dont believe it. Iran is developing intercontinental missiles with a range of 8,000 kilometers; add another 3,000 and they can get to the East Coast of the [United States].

Araqchi responded on X, writing that Israel is now trying to make an imaginary threat out of our defense capabilities and accusing Netanyahu of goading Washington into fighting Israels Forever Wars.

Expert Opinion:The United States and its allies remain deeply concerned that Irans space program may serve as a cover for developing long-range missile technology, including ICBMs. Tehran, meanwhile, insists its program is peaceful, focused solely on communications and research.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, recently told Radio Farda that Irans satellite launch vehicles (SLVs) could, with some modifications, be converted for use as ICBMs.

Normally, its the other way around: you turn long-range missiles into SLVs, Nadimi noted, reflecting the dual-use nature of the technology.

Iran has sent several satellites into orbit using vehicles like Zoljanah -- a hybrid-fuel, road-mobile rocket -- but with a mixed record: numerous launch failures show the technology is still maturing. Nadimi added that while it may be impossible right now to turn Zoljanah into a true ICBM, it has the potential for future adaptation.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

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