Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, Im looking into how the end of nearly two decades of leftist rule in Bolivia could put a damper on Irans strategy of expanding its influence in Latin America.

What You Need To Know

Shaky Latin American Foothold After Right Pivot:Bolivias election of Rodrigo Paz, a center-right senator, ends roughly two decades of dominance by the Movement for Socialism party (MAS) and signals a foreign-policy realignment toward the United States and a prospective reset with Israel after ties were severed in 2023 amid the Gaza war fallout. For Iran, which expanded security and political links with La Paz in recent years, the pivot threatens a significant loss of diplomatic cover and operational permissiveness in the Andes.

Top Iranian Officials Accused Of Shah-Era Assassination:US-based scholar Mehrzad Boroujerdi has accused top Iranian figures Ali Shamkhani and Mohsen Rezaei of assassinating his father, Malek Boroujerdi, just weeks before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.Speaking to RFE/RLs Radio Farda, he said his father had been targeted for his opposition to the crippling oil workers strike, which contributed to the fall of the monarchy.

Khamenei Rejects Talks With US Again: Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this week again rejected negotiations with the United States, toughening his stance on Irans nuclear and missile program. In his first speech in nearly two months, Khamenei accused US President Donald Trump of looking to impose a deal on Iran. He also denied Trumps assertion that Iranian nuclear sites were destroyed in US strikes in June.

The Big Issue

Bolivian Defense Minister Edmundo Novillo is greeted by Iran's then-defense minister Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani in Tehran in July 2023.

Recalibrating Relations

Paz campaigned on stabilizing an economy battered by shortages and currency strain, but the external shift is immediate: The United States and Israel were quick to welcome the result, framing it as a chance to rebuild relations and cooperation.

Iran, too, issued a statement congratulating Paz on his victory, but that seemed to be more out of courtesy than anything else.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar spoke with Paz shortly after his election was confirmed on October 20 and expressed his countrys desire to turn a new page in ties with Bolivia. He also said Israel will be represented in Pazs inauguration on November 8 after receiving a formal invitation from the incoming president.

There is no record of any Iranian officials speaking with Paz yet.

Why It Matters:Bolivia has beencitedby regional and Israeli analysts as a rising state in Irans Latin America footprint, especially after a 2023 security agreement referencing drones, cybersecurity, and training -- all of which are likely to face review under a US-leaning government.

A reset with Israel would further narrow Tehrans space, stripping away a symbolic Andean bridgehead and tightening oversight on security cooperation that Washington views skeptically, with downstream effects on sanctions exposure and transit routes.

The shift also intersects with strategic minerals: Pazs pro-market stance and expected compliance tilt may recalibrate lithium policy, complicating any indirect Iranian access to sensitive supply chains via Bolivian channels while La Paz rebalances between China and Western partners.

With Bolivia stepping back, Irans Latin strategy will lean more on its core partners -- Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba -- where long-standing political affinity and security cooperation are entrenched, limiting Tehrans broader regional bandwidth.

In short, Bolivias pivot will likely compress Irans Latin American map, with fewer friendly capitals, more scrutiny on security and finance, and a harder path to leverage Andean geography for influence and logistics in what someconsiderto be Americas backyard.

What's Being Said:There has been little commentary in Iran about the implications of Pazs victory on Tehrans Latin America strategy. The reticence could be partially chalked up to analysts waiting to see whether Iran can build any sort of rapport with the new government in La Paz.

Expert Opinion:Outside of Iran, however, the analysis is pretty uniform.

Danny Citrinowicz, senior fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies,describesPazs election as another severe blow to Irans ambitions in Latin America.

Unfortunately for them, this is probably not the end, he adds.

Nicolas Saldias, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has similar views.

Paz will foster better relations with the United States, which has had extremely poor bilateral relations under MAS, hesays.Paz will likely distance Bolivia from close ties with Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia and Iran, but maintain pragmatic ties with China.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

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