Analysts said that while both talks sent out positive signals of continued dialogue, core divergences remain unresolved, making substantial breakthroughs unlikely in the short term.

by Xinhua writer Jiao Qian

GENEVA, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- In a rare convergence of global diplomacy, two separate high-stakes talks were held on Tuesday in the Swiss city of Geneva, drawing worldwide attention to their potential impact on global geopolitical orders.

The second round of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated by Oman, started on Tuesday morning and concluded with "progress" cited by both sides, with further talks to be scheduled.

Following talks with the Iranian side, the U.S. delegation met with counterparts from Russia and Ukraine for a new round of trilateral talks aimed at resolving the escalating Ukraine crisis.

Analysts said that while both talks sent out positive signals of continued dialogue, core divergences remain unresolved, making substantial breakthroughs unlikely in the short term.

"PROGRESS" IN U.S.-IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS

In the indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, following the first round in Muscat, Oman, on Feb. 6, the U.S. delegation was led by President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, while the Iranian side was led by Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi.

Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad bin Hamood Albusaidi mediated the negotiations.

All parties involved confirmed "progress" in the talks upon their conclusion at around midday.

Albusaidi said on social media platform X that Tuesday's talks concluded with "good progress" towards identifying common goals and relevant technical issues. He added that "much work is yet to be done, and the parties left with clear next steps before the next meeting."

Araghchi told Iran's state-run IRIB TV after the talks that the Geneva talks were held in a more "constructive" atmosphere compared to the Muscat round. He added that the two sides had "reached a general agreement on a series of guiding principles," which will serve as the basis for moving forward and beginning work "on the text of a possible agreement."

The U.S. side said the talks with Iran saw progress, but further discussion on some issues was still needed, Axios cited a U.S. official as saying.

Iran is expected to return with detailed proposals to address remaining gaps in the next two weeks, Axios reported.

DEEP DIVISIONS

The talks came against a backdrop of heightened tensions and stark divisions between the two sides.

Washington has said that any deal with Iran must include a ban on uranium enrichment, the removal of its enriched material, limits on long-range missiles, and a rollback of support for regional proxies.

Ahead of the Geneva talks, the United States ramped up military pressure on Iran. Trump said he would be "indirectly" involved in the talks and warned Tehran of the consequences of failing to strike a deal.

Meanwhile, Iran has insisted that the discussions be limited to the nuclear issue. Tehran reiterated its willingness to reach a "fair and equitable deal" that would lift sanctions but insisted on two red lines: preserving its right to peaceful nuclear energy and maintaining its missile capabilities.

Speaking at the Plenary Meeting of the Conference on Disarmament held in Geneva a few hours after the talks, Araghchi said that "a new window of opportunity has opened" after Tuesday's talks with the United States.

He expressed hope that the negotiation would lead to a sustainable solution that serves the broader region. He also reiterated that Iran remains fully prepared to defend itself against any threats or acts of aggression.

After the talks began, Iran announced a temporary closure in parts of the Strait of Hormuz during its live fire drill "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz."

Experts have pointed out that there is deep-seated mutual distrust between the United States and Iran since the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from an earlier nuclear accord with Iran in 2018.

Safet Music, a security expert in Bosnia and Herzegovina, told Xinhua that trust between the United States and Iran remains low, while differences extend beyond the nuclear issue to include the region's security architecture. Partial agreements on monitoring and sanctions relief are possible, but rapid breakthroughs are unlikely, he said.

Luigi Toninelli, a junior research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, argued that U.S. military pressure is approaching a tipping point, with two possible trajectories: a largely demonstrative strike or a new and destabilizing conflict. He noted that Washington's demands are politically difficult for Tehran to accept.

Even so, he added that military action would not necessarily deliver regime change.

Neil Quilliam, partner at London-based advisory and research firm Azure Strategy, told Xinhua that a deal remains far off.

"President Trump's patience will determine whether the United States gives the process time or carries out punitive strikes against Iran," Quilliam said.

"TENSE" TRILATERAL TALKS

Tuesday also marked the first day of a new round of trilateral talks among Ukraine, the United States and Russia, with negotiations set to continue on Wednesday.

"The discussions focused on practical issues and the mechanisms of possible solutions," Ukraine's chief negotiator Rustem Umerov, also Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary, wrote on X after the talks.

Meanwhile, media reports cited a source describing the talks as "very tense," adding that they lasted six hours in both bilateral and trilateral formats.

The negotiations, held behind closed doors, are expected to address territorial issues, military matters, political and economic concerns, as well as security arrangements, Russian news agency TASS reported.

Russia's delegation includes presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and other officials, the Kremlin confirmed on Monday.

Fighting continued between Russia and Ukraine before the talks, underscoring the fragility of the diplomatic process.

Experts are cautious about the outcomes of the trilateral talks, as the core obstacles to peace -- territory and security guarantees -- have not shifted.

Music told Xinhua that the Ukraine crisis has entered a prolonged conflict of attrition in which neither Moscow nor Kiev can achieve a decisive breakthrough without enormous costs. "In this context, diplomacy serves more as a tool of conflict management than resolution," said the expert.

He added that modest outcomes, such as humanitarian arrangements, prisoner exchanges, or technical de-escalation, are more realistic than a final settlement.

Security analyst Agostinho Costa said in an interview with Portuguese media that the key difference between the current Geneva talks and previous rounds lies in Russia's intention to increase political and territorial pressure on Ukraine. Ukraine, for its part, has placed greater emphasis on energy issues. Both sides, therefore, have a practical incentive to reach a "de facto ceasefire" regarding energy infrastructure, although such an arrangement would remain fragile.

From a broader perspective, Costa argued that Trump, by pressuring Ukraine and downplaying moral narratives, has promoted a power-based approach centered on spheres of influence.

He added that although Europe continues to voice support for Ukraine's long-term resistance, developments on the battlefield and in politics suggest that negotiations are increasingly shifting away from value-based discourse toward great-power competition and the redrawing of influence zones. The outcome, he noted, will not only shape the trajectory of the Ukraine crisis but also have implications for the future international order.

Sandi Dizdarevic, assistant professor at Victoria International University, said developments in both talks would have implications for European security, energy markets and broader geopolitical stability. (Video reporters: Ma Ruxuan, Shi Song, Wang Lu; video editors: Li Ziwei, Zhu Cong, Lin Lin, Zheng Qingbin)