Analysts say the shortage risk reflects a chain reaction set off by geopolitical tensions, exposing structural vulnerabilities in Europe's energy system, including heavy reliance on Middle Eastern supplies, shrinking refining capacity and rising costs linked to decarbonisation policies.

BERLIN, April 29 (Xinhua) -- Prolonged tensions in the Middle East are putting pressure on Europe's aviation sector, as concerns shift from rising prices to the risk of fuel shortages ahead of the summer travel season.

Global jet fuel prices have surged in recent weeks after disruptions to oil supply routes, as industry data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) showed jet fuel prices have risen from around 85-90 U.S. dollars per barrel before the conflict to 150-200 dollars in recent weeks. But for Europe, the more pressing concern is not cost, but access to fuel.

Analysts say the shortage risk reflects a chain reaction set off by geopolitical tensions, exposing structural vulnerabilities in Europe's energy system, including heavy reliance on Middle Eastern supplies, shrinking refining capacity and rising costs linked to decarbonisation policies.

FLIGHT CUTS

Airlines are already responding by cutting capacity and raising fares, signaling that the impact is beginning to feed through to consumers.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Europe's jet fuel reserves may cover only about six weeks, and continued disruption to oil flows could soon force airlines to cancel flights. IATA Director General Willie Walsh has warned that cancellations could begin as early as late May if shortages persist.

Germany's Lufthansa said it would cut around 20,000 short-haul flights due to surging fuel costs and accelerate the retirement of older, less efficient aircraft, including 27 regional jets operated by its CityLine subsidiary.

Air France-KLM is raising long-haul ticket prices by about 50 euros (59 dollars), while its Dutch unit KLM said it would cancel around 160 European flights in the coming month because of higher fuel costs.

Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) plans to cancel a further 1,000 flights in April after cutting hundreds in March, while Norse Atlantic Airways has already scrapped its London-Los Angeles route.

Budget carrier easyJet said its first-half pre-tax loss would widen to between 540 million and 560 million pounds (729 million-756 million dollars), including about 25 million pounds (33.75 million dollars) in additional fuel costs in March alone. Chief Executive Kenton Jarvis said ticket prices would likely rise toward the end of the summer as fuel hedges expire.

With demand holding up, analysts say the combination of shrinking capacity and rising fares could lead to a situation where passengers are willing to pay more but can not secure seats.

ENERGY DEPENDENCE

Europe's vulnerability stems in part from its long-standing dependence on imported fuel, particularly from the Middle East.

IEA data showed the region typically relies on the Middle East for around 75 percent of its net jet fuel imports, leaving it highly exposed to disruptions in key supply routes.

At the same time, Europe's domestic refining base has steadily eroded. According to the European Fuel Manufacturers Association, around 35 refineries have been closed or converted since 2009, reducing overall capacity by roughly 20 percent.

In parallel, the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, part of the Fit for 55 climate package, mandates the gradual blending of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from 2025, with targets rising to 70 percent by 2050. However, SAF typically costs more than twice as much as conventional jet fuel, adding to airlines' cost burden.

Jet fuel markets are also less flexible than crude oil, requiring specific refining processes and stable logistics networks. As shipping routes are disrupted and transit times lengthen, inventory levels at European airports have fallen quickly.

Geopolitical constraints are also raising demand. With Russian and Ukrainian airspaces closed due to the conflict in Ukraine, and Middle Eastern routes restricted, flights between Europe and East Asia are being rerouted, adding hours to journey times and increasing fuel consumption.

SUPPLY STRAIN

Industry observers warn that late May could mark a turning point if supply conditions do not improve.

Even in the event of reopening key shipping routes, aviation analyst Henry Harteveldt said it would take months for production and delivery systems to return to normal.

The European Commission has said it will set up a monitoring system to track jet fuel production, imports and inventories in an effort to identify shortages early and coordinate responses. The Airlines for Europe has called for real-time tracking of stock levels.

Alternative supply options are also under strain. While the United States has emerged as a key supplier, increasing demand in Asia is drawing cargoes away from Europe, intensifying competition.

Against this backdrop, the Central Europe Pipeline System (CEPS), a NATO-operated network built during the Cold War is being reassessed as a strategic asset. The system connects ports, refineries and major airports across several countries and provides a stable means of transporting jet fuel within the region.

However, industry groups say that while prioritizing access to the pipeline could ease distribution constraints, it can not offset the broader shortfall in supply.

Experts say Europe's aviation sector is increasingly shifting from a cost challenge to a supply constraint. With airlines planning schedules months in advance, the impact is likely to persist through the peak summer season, underscoring the region's longer-term challenge of balancing energy security with climate goals.